基于T639对流参数的内蒙古强对流天气潜势预报方法初探

Preliminary Study on Potential Forecast Method of Strong Convective Weather in Inner Mongolia Based on T639 Convective Parameters

统计内蒙古地区2011—2014年汛期短时强降水、冰雹、大风强对流天气的基础上,利用T6391°×1°逐3 h的数值模式产品计算物理量,选取与强对流天气相关性较好的敏感对流参数作为预报因子,通过权重分析建立未来0-12 h强对流天气及落区的潜势预报方程,并确定判别不同强对流天气的阈值。通过对2013年8月进行的预报试验结果表明：发生强对流天气的平均TS评分为0.35;不发生强对流天气的平均TS评分为0.51;3种强对流天气预报中对冰雹预报效果不理想,但对大风及短时强降水预报效果好。

Based on statistics about short-time heavy rainfall,hail and gale in flood seasons during 2011-2014 in Inner Mongolia,the physical quantities were calculated by using the numerical model production of T639,which has 1° × 1° resolution and 3 hours time interval. Choosing the convection parameters to be predictors that had better sensibility and correlation with severe convective weathers,the 0-12 h potential forecasting equations about severe convective weather and corresponding areas were established through the weight analysis,and different thresholds were identified for different strong convective weathers. This equation was carried out to forecast severe convective weathers in August 2013,the results show that the mean TS score of severe convective weathers was 0. 35 and the mean TS score of no severe convective weather was 0. 51. Among three different severe convective weathers,the forecast effect of hail was the worst,while for strong winds and short-time strong rainfall,it was better.