蛋鸡生产与鸡蛋价格动态变化关系

Research on dynamic change correlations between the production performance of laying hen and egg price

为了解蛋鸡生产和鸡蛋价格间的动态变化,运用协整检验和向量自回归模型,利用我国蛋鸡主产省2009—2014年的月度数据,就产蛋鸡存栏、鸡蛋产量和鸡蛋价格之间的动态变化关系进行实证分析。研究表明：产蛋鸡存栏、鸡蛋产量和鸡蛋价格之间存在长期均衡关系;三者之间在不同时期存在动态变化关系,当期产蛋鸡存栏、鸡蛋产量、鸡蛋价格变化主要取决于滞后了2期各变量的变化。三者在滞后1~7期、12期和17期时存在格兰杰因果关系或明显的脉冲响应值、方差贡献率等动态变化;实证结果与商品蛋雏鸡饲养5个月左右开产,6~7个月产蛋率趋于稳定及蛋鸡产蛋周期为12个月、饲养周期为17个月的生物学规律相吻合。

Cointegration test and vector autoregression （VAR） model were used to analyze the monthly data from 2009 to 2014 which came from main provinces of producing laying hens in China. The results showed that： There were long- term equilibrium relationship and dynamic change correlations among the three variables at different periods; Current laying hen stocks,egg production,egg price varied mostly on the changes of those variables in the first two periods. There were obviouse dynamic change relationships among the three variables on Granger causality, impulse response values or contribution rate variance at the lag length of 1 to 7, 12 and 17 periods. The empirical results were coincident with the biological rule of laying hens; Chicken of commodity generation begins to lay eggs after about 5 months feeding. The laying rate is stabilized at 6-7 months;The laying cycle is 12 months and the raising cycle is 17 months.