基于均方差决策法的辽宁省城市综合承载力研究

Research of Urban Comprehensive Carrying Capacity in Liaoning Province Based on the Mean-square Deviation Decision Method

通过构建评价指标体系,并基于均方差决策方法确立指标权重,构建综合承载力评价模型,对辽宁省14个地级市综合承载力展开分析。结果表明,研究区内资源、环境承载力供需指数比普遍偏低,14个地级市中环境承载力供需指数比大于1的比例不足10%,资源承载力比例不足30%。不同城市各要素承载力及综合承载力均存在显著差异,其中,大连、沈阳综合承载力最高,本溪、丹东资源承载力最高,辽阳、盘锦环境承载力较低,沈阳和大连经济承载力较高,各城市社会承载力总体较高。此外,资源与经济承载力对研究区城市综合承载力的影响最大,但是研究区城市发展的限制性因素是环境,未来应着重根据各市环境短板确定未来严格的环境保护目标与管理体制,有效提升城市环境承载力。

In this paper, on the basis of the mean-square deviation decision method, index weight was set up by establishment of an indicator evaluation system. Then, an urban comprehensive carrying capacity evaluation model was constructed and the comprehensive carrying capacity of 14 prefecture-level cities in Liaoning Province was analyzed. The results showed that as for most cities in the studied areas, the supply and demand ratio of resource and environment carrying capacities were generally low, with the proportion of the supply and demand ratio of the environmental carrying capacity in the 14 cities above 1 less than 10% and that of the resource carrying capacity less than 30%. There were significant differences in the key elements of the carrying capacities and the comprehensive carrying capacity of different cities. The comprehensive carrying capacity of Dalian and Shenyang was the highest; the resource carrying capacity of Benxi and Dandong was in the first place; the environmental carrying capacity of Liaoyang and Panjin was lower; the economic carrying capacity of Shenyang and Dalian was higher; and the social carrying capacity of all the cities was high. In addition, from the study, it was shown that the influences of resource and economic carrying capacities on the urban comprehensive carrying capacity were greatest. However, environment was the limiting factor for urban development. In the future, most cities in the studied areas should put focus on establishment of environmental protection objectives and management system to effectively improve the urban environmental carrying capacity.