建设工程造价不确定性分析研究

Uncertainty Analysis of Construction Cost

建设工程造价在工程建设全过程中占据了极其重要的地位,长期以来都受到工程建设人员的重视。工程造价不确定性直接影响了工程造价在各阶段(投资估算、设计概算、修正概算、施工图预算、工程结算、竣工决算)的准确性,对建设工程投资目标的控制和实现拥有着决定性的作用。基于工程造价的相关原理,对工程造价中的不确定性因素进行分析,如工期、材料价格、生产力水平、实际工程量和政策的不确定性,然后提出应对工程造价不确定性的策略。

construction cost occupy an important position in the whole process of construction, which was always focused by the construction personnel. Cost uncertainty directly affecte^l the accuracy in all stages of the project cost （investment estimation, design estimates, revised estimates, construction budgetl project settlement, completion of final accounts）, which also controlled and achieved a decisive effect on the owners of the construction investment objectives. Based on the relevant principles of the project cost, and research on the project cost uncertainty, such as construction period, material prices, the level of productivity, the amount of the actual project and policy uncertainty, then treatment to deal with the uncertainty of the project cost was proposed.