解析几何法和数值积分法的弹道预报性能分析

Performance Analysis of Analytic Geometry and Numerical Integration for Trajectory Prediction

为提高弹道预报性能,针对弹道预报中的解析几何法和数值积分法进行了对比研究。解析几何法和数值积分法分别采用了状态矢量对轨道根数的雅克比矩阵和协方差分析描述函数法(CADET)进行误差传播分析。仿真计算结果表明,解析几何法运算速度更快,而数值积分法计算精度更高,在实际弹道预报中,可以针对不同的预警任务需求选择合适的方法,从而有效地提高弹道预报性能。

A systematic comparison between analytic geometry and numerical integration is made to improve their efficiency in trajectory prediction. Analytic geometry and numerical integration respec- tively adopt the state vector to orbit element Jacobian Matrix and the covariance analysis describing equation technique（CADET） to analyze the error propagation. Simulation results show that the ana- lytic geometry has a faster speed, while the numerical integration has a higher calculation accuracy. In practice, choosing suitable methods to meet different warning mission requirements can improve the trajectory prediction efficiency.