经济增长与能源结构的实证研究——基于山东省的数据

Empirical Research on Economic Growth and Energy Structure in Shandong Province

文章基于1985—2012年的时间序列数据,对山东省经济增长、各能源消费量及能源消费总量之间的关系进行了协整分析,建立了向量误差修正模型,并进行了格兰杰因果关系检验。研究发现,山东省经济增长与煤炭、石油、天然气、电力和能源消费总量之间存在长期的均衡关系;短期内,山东省的经济增长主要受煤炭和电力消费量波动的影响,而石油(原油)和天然气的作用却不显著,能源消费总量的贡献也由于各能源影响效果的综合叠加而不显著;存在煤炭、天然气和电力消费量到经济增长的单向格兰杰因果关系,而石油和能源消费总量同经济增长之间不存在格兰杰因果关系。

Based on statistics of Shandong province from 1985 to 2012,this article made a co-integration analysis of the economic growth,the consumption of different kinds of energy and the total energy consumed in Shandong province.It also built a vector error correction model of each variable and made a Granger causality test for them,arriving at the result that there existed a long-term balanced relationship among the economic growth,the consumption of different kinds of energy and the total energy consumed;In a short term,the economic growth of Shandong province was dominantly influenced by the consumption of coal and electric power,while the driving force of the consumption of oil and natural gas was a little weaker.In addition,the contribution of the total energy consumed to the economic growth was impaired by the comprehensive influence of each energy consumption;there respectively existed a one-way Granger causality from the consumption of coal,natural gas and electric power to the economic growth,while there existed no Granger causality between the consumption of oil,the total energy consumed and the economic growth.