基于EnergyPLAN模型分析现有政策对可再生能源发展的影响——以京津冀为例

An Analysis of Current Renewable Energy Policies Based on EnergyPLAN Model

中国经济快速发展过程中对化石能源的依赖造成了严重的环境污染。风能、太阳能等可再生能源具有清洁无污染、可再生等众多优点,大规模推广使用可再生能源成为解决目前能源环境问题的最主要途径。本文基于EnergyPLAN模型结合京津冀电网的实际情况,构建京津冀地区2016、2020、2030三个未来能源系统场景,定量化分析目前能源政策下未来京津冀地区各种形式的电源发电情况,并进一步分析为达到可再生能源发展的中等情景和高等情景,现有政策中存在的差距。

In the rapid development of China economy,great dependence on fossil fuels has caused serious pollution.Wind,solar and other renewable energy sources are nonpolluting and renewable sources,large-scale use of renewable energy has become the most important way to solve energy sustainable development and environmental issues.The government has introduced various policies to promote the use of renewable energy,but it is unknown whether these policies should meet future demand for renewable energy development. We use EnergyPLAN model to simulate Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei grid and construct three future scenarios—2016scenario,2020 scenario,2030scenario to analyze the influence of current energy policy on future renewable energy generation ratio.In the end,we analyze the gap of the current policies to achieve the renewable energy development targets in middle scenario and high scenario.