中国碳排放绩效测度、时空演变及影响因素

The empirical analysis on space-time evolution and influence factors of carbon emission performance in China

根据1990-2012年29个省市时间序列数据,运用全要素DEA模型分析了碳排放绩效的现状,并运用ARCGIS软件描述其时空演变特征。构建状态空间模型,从技术效应、规模效应、结构效应、环境效应和制度效应5个维度分析碳排放绩效的影响因素。研究结果表明:我国碳排放绩效总体水平偏低,平均值距离前沿面还有29个百分点,碳排放绩效有很大的提升空间;随着时间的推移,碳排放高绩效地区自西向东,自北向南推移,最终聚集于东南部地区;能源效率、第二产业比重、人均GDP、所有权属性、对外贸易依存度与碳排放绩效有长期均衡关系,能源效率、人均GDP对碳排放绩效产生正向影响,第二产业比重、所有权属性对碳排放绩效产生反向影响;能源效率对碳排放绩效影响最大,第二产业比重次之,人均GDP、所有权属性、对外贸易依存度的影响较小。

Based on the panel data of 29 provinces in China from 1990 to 2012,the present situation of carbon emission performance is analyzed by Data Envelopment Analysis model.Then, a ARCGIS software is used to describe the space-time evolution characteristics of carbon emission performance.At last the influence factors are analyzed from five dimensions including technical effect,scale effect, structure effect, environmental effect and system effect.The results show that：firstly, China＇s carbon emission performance still remains a low level,there is 29% from mean value to the frontier and the space for improvement is so large. Secondly, as time goes on,the carbon emission moves from west to east and from north to south,eventually gathered in the south-east.Thirdly, the energy efficiency, the second industry proportion,the GDP per capita,the ownership of the property and the foreign trade have a long-term equilibrium relationship to carbon emission performance.The energy efficiency and the GDP per capita show positive effect,on the contrary, the second industry proportion and the ownership of the property show reverse effect.Fourthly, from the perspective of influence,energy efficiency is the most influential,the second industry proportion takes second place and there is less influence of other factors.