变局中的欧洲货币——兼谈商业银行应对策略

European currencies in turbulent environments and corresponding strategies of commercial banks

英国公投退欧后，金融市场短期表现较此前预估更稳定。从9月开始，市场遭遇回调压力，国债市场收益率快速上升，股市则进入了顶部调整期。整体来看，美联储年内升息预期更加明朗，欧元区、英国、日本保持宽松基调，瑞士央行继续观望。美元新一轮牛市初露端倪，欧洲货币兑美元整体上处于弱势，而在欧洲货币内部，英镑与欧元亦步亦趋的模式已被打破，而瑞郎仍将力求兑欧元保持稳定。

After the Brexit referendum, financial markets were more stable than expected in the short-term. Since September, the markets have been under correction pressure, as the bond market yields surged and the stock markets fell from the top. On the whole, it becomes clearer for the Fed to raise interest rates, while the policies in the Euro zone, UK and Japan will remain easing and the Swiss central bank will keep watching. There are signs of a new round of bullish USD and European currencies will remain weak against the USD. Inside the Europe, the close connection between the GBP and the Euro has been broken and the Swiss franc will strive to maintain stability against the Euro.