分割市场与土地出让——理论与来自中国省际面板的证据

Market Segmentation and Land Sold: An Empirical Research Based on Chinese Provincial Panel Data

地方政府作为土地市场上的独家垄断者,其行为逻辑符合经济理性。本文试图把不同土地出让市场土地需求弹性的差异作为最根本的外生变量,构建土地出让的独家垄断市场结构理论模型,并利用2004-2010年的省级面板数据进行验证。实证研究发现:土地需求弹性差异是地方政府土地出让行为选择的决定因素;未来省际间分割市场的定价差距将随着自身经济发展水平的提高、土地需求弹性的降低而逐步缩小,即表现为分割市场的定价差距与经济发展水平呈现"倒U型"变化规律;省区之间表现为发达省份土地出让市场分割弱化快,欠发达省份土地出让市场分割弱化慢的变化趋势。

As land market monopolist, the behavior of local governments is reasonable. Using the panel data of Chinese province from 2004 to 2010, this paper tends to make demand elasticity of land sold market as fundamental exogenous variable, and establish the model of theory construction in monopoly market. Conclusions are as followings. Firstly, the difference in de- mand elasticity of land sold market is one of the most important factors for the behavior of local governments. Secondly, the pri- cing gap will be narrowed with the development of economic and the decrease of land demand elasticity. The trend for pricing disparity will be inverted U in the future. Thirdly, land market segmentation in developed provinces will disappear quicker than less developed provinces.