长三角OFDI对区域技术创新的非线性动态影响效应——基于吸收能力的PSTR模型检验

The Non-linear and Dynamic Effects of OFDI in Yangtze River Delta on Regional Technology Innovation: An Empirical Analysis Based on Absorptive Capacity and Panel Smooth Transition Regression Model

文章利用长三角地区25个城市2007～2014年的面板数据，以人力资本、金融发展水平、交通基础设施和对外开放度等吸收能力变量分别作为转换变量，采用包含外生控制变量的面板平滑转换（PSTR）模型，检验了OFDI对区域技术创新的非线性动态影响效应。研究结论表明：上述吸收能力变量均存在单一门槛，当吸收能力变量跨越各自的门槛值并使得PSTR模型趋于高体制时，OFDI对区域技术创新能力的影响均为正向显著；对应于不同的吸收能力变量，跨越各自门槛值的样本在时间和空间分布上存在差异；对外开放度和人力资本是最重要的两个吸收能力变量，但跨越各自门槛的样本比例较低；随着吸收能力变量水平的连续增加，OFDI对区域技术创新能力的影响也在持续增强，OFDI和区域技术创新之间存在平滑转换机制效应。

Based on the 25 cities data in Yangtze River Delta from 2007 to 2014,by using absorptive capacity variables such as human capital,openness,financial development level and transport infrastructure as transision variables repectively,this paper analyzes the non-linear and dynamic effects of OFDI on regional technology innovation,with panel smooth transition regression model including exogenous control variables. The results show that all of the capacity variables have single thresholds repectively,and OFDI has a positive impact on regional technology innovation capability when the absorptive capacity variables exceed their thresholds and PSTR models tend to high regime. The time and space distributions of the samples exceeding different absorptive capacity variable thresholds are different. Openness and human capital are both the most important absorptive capacity variables,but the proportion of the samples exceeding the respective threshold is low. The impact of OFDI on regional technology innovation capability continues to increase with the continuous improvement of absorptive capacity variables. There is a non-linear and smooth transition characteristic feature between OFDI and regional technology innovation.