采用异常检测的技术机会识别方法研究

Identifying Technology Opportunities with Anomaly Detection Technique

【目的】为探索一种准确而及时地识别技术机会的方法,提出一种基于异常检测技术识别技术机会的框架。【方法】通过构建相似度矩阵进行多维尺度分析,基于多种异常点检测算法识别出潜在技术机会专利,结合TRIZ的技术系统进化法则从潜在技术机会专利中挖掘出技术机会。【结果】获取激光光刻技术2000年–2015年的德温特专利数据,对该领域不同阶段的技术机会进行识别,分析结果显示,通过此框架识别出的前两个阶段的技术机会就是下一阶段的主流技术,同时,改进后的极紫外光刻技术可能成为下一代激光光刻领域的主流技术之一。【局限】利用TRIZ判定技术机会存在一定的主观性,识别准确度有待进一步提高。【结论】基于异常检测的技术机会识别方法可以有效地识别出技术机会,有助于提高识别技术机会的及时性。

[Objective] This paper proposes a framework to effectively identify technology opportunities with anomaly detection technique. [Methods] First, we constructed a similarity matrix and conducted multidimensional scaling analysis. Second, we identified potential technology opportunity from patents based on a variety of anomaly detection algorithm. Finally, we extracted the possible breakthroughs with the help of TRIZ＇s laws of technology system evolution. [Results] We analyzed patent data from the DII database and then identified technology opportunities in different phases of the laser lithography field. We found that technology opportunities identified by the proposed framework became mainstream technologies later. [Limitations] The objectiveness and accuracy of the new method needs to be improved. [Conclusions] The proposed framework based on anomaly detection could effectively identify technology opportunities.