灰色预测模型在预测话音网关故障中的研究与应用

Research and Application of Fault-prediction Method in Voice Gateway Based on Grey-forecasting Model

话音网关主要完成IP通信系统与系统外部模拟线路的互联,是指挥所用于对上对下通信联络的重要设备,对部队指挥顺畅至关重要;当前排除故障的主要手段是待设备发出警报并停止工作之后才知晓并处理;针对此情况提出一种设备故障前置预测法,即对设备主要部件输出信号实际进行监控并与设备理论输出值进行比较,进一步研究发现由于理论输出值一般是一个范围,会影响判定精度,因此改为利用灰色预测模型的预测值与实际信号进行比较,如两个信号的差值较大则认为部件有隐患;从实际仿真来看,使用灰色预测模型的方法在故障判断的准确性上要好于第一种方法。

The voice gateway mainly completes the interconnection between IP communication system and external analog circuit, which is major equipment for the command and very important to the command of the army. Currently, we can repair only after the system can not work normally. In this paper, a method of forecasting failure is proposed, which monitors the differential value of the actual value and the theory value. Then replace the actual value with the grey--forecasting model. According to the simulation results, Grey--forecasting model is better in accuracy.