土地市场对城市建设用地扩张的影响——基于285个城市面板数据的分析

Impacts of land market development on urban expansion:an empirical analysis based on panel data for 285 cities in China

为了研究土地市场发展对城市建设用地扩张有何具体的影响,本文根据中国土地市场的特征构建了两者作用的理论框架并建立计量经济模型,运用中国大陆地区281个地级市和4个直辖市2001-2008年的面板数据,采取聚类稳健标准误差和异方差稳健的豪斯曼检验得到固定效应模型,分别对全国及东部、中部和西部地区的城市进行了回归分析,以揭示土地市场结构对城市建设用地扩张影响的区域差异。结果表明:(1)一级市场成交面积的增加和土地有偿使用率的提高能够明显减缓城市建设用地的扩张,而一级市场成交总价款的增加却会明显促进城市的扩张,与此同时,一级市场成交均价及二级市场流转面积、成交价款和转让均价对城市扩张的影响尚不显著;(2)从区域差异来看,东部和中部地区的一级市场发育都能明显影响城市扩张的进程,而西部地区土地市场的作用则相对减弱了许多;(3)从时间变化来看,一级市场成交面积增长对城市扩张的抑制作用随时间呈波动趋势,一级市场成交价款增长对城市扩张的促进作用则呈逐年波动加强的趋势,土地交易市场化程度的提高对城市扩张的减缓作用也在逐年减弱。

To explore the specific impacts of land market development on urban land expansion, we constructed a theoretical framework based on analysis of China＇s land market development and characteristics. An econometric model was estimated using panel data for 285 cities in China from 2001 to 2008. Cluster-robust standard error and heteroscedasticity-robust Hausman tests were used to obtain the fixed effect model. Results show that expansion of conveyance area and improvement of marketization degree of land conveyance in the primary land market will obviously reduce the expansion of urban construction land, while total revenue increase in the primary land market will accelerate the pace of urban expansion. Meanwhile, land price in the primary land market and all the factors in the secondary land market have no significant influence on urban expansion generally. From the perspective of regional differences, the land market development in the eastern and central regions has more noticeable impacts on urban expansion than that in the western region. Specifically, in contrast with the other two regions, the rising land marketization level has the most obvious effect on restraining urban expansion in the eastern region, while land-sales revenue increase in the primary market has the most remarkable impact on stimulating urban expansion in central China. At the same time, in the western area, although most factors have no significant influence on urban scale, the increasing land transaction fees both in the primary market and secondary market still play a notable role in accelerating urban growth. From the viewpoint of time scale, the effect of transaction area increases in the primary land market on inhibiting urban expansion fluctuates with time, while the effect of land-sales revenue increases in the primary market on urban expansion rises with fluctuation. The influence strength of rising land marketization level on reducing urban expansion also becomes increasingly weaker.