我国建筑业物化能增长的结构分解分析

Structural Decomposition Analysis of the Growth in the Chinese Construction Sector's Embodied Energy

研究建筑业物化能的影响因素对促进建筑业可持续性具有重要意义.为较为准确地研究建筑业物化能的影响因素,在构建部门拆分的投入产出生命周期评价模型的基础上,结合完全分解方法构建了完全结构分解模型.该模型将建筑业物化能影响因素分为列昂惕夫效应、强度效应和终端需求规模效应.采用该模型对2005—2010年建筑业物化能增长进行了实证研究.结果表明:1基于部门拆分的投入产出生命周期评价模型可在一定程度上减小产业部门划分粗略和统计数据不可靠等因素导致的误差,提高结果可靠性.22005—2010年建筑业物化能(以标准煤计,下同)增长了6.755×108t,终端需求规模效应显著拉动了建筑业物化能的增长,其贡献率高达188%;列昂惕夫效应也在一定程度上拉动了物化能增长,其贡献率为42%;强度效应则较为显著地发挥了削减物化能的作用,贡献率为-130%.3相比传统模型,完全结构分解模型消除了分解残差(-7.399×108t),从而提高了分析可靠性.从提高工程建设规划水平,加强基础设施和建筑维护,推进新型建筑工业化、绿色建造和智慧建造,促进建材生产过程节能减排和发展高性能建材等方面提出了控制建筑业物化能的建议.

Analysis of the factors influencing the construction sector＇s embodied energy is important for promoting sustainability in construction. To more accurately analyze the influencing factors,a sector-disaggregated input-output life cycle assessment（ IO-LCA）model was first developed; on this basis,a complete structural decomposition analysis（ SDA） model was built through integrating the developed IO-LCA model with the complete decomposition method. In the complete SDA model,the influencing factors of the construction sector＇s embodied energy were classified into Leontief effect,intensity effect and final demand scale effect. An empirical study was carried out to analyze the increase in the Chinese construction sector＇ s embodied energy from 2005 to 2010. The results showed that：（ 1） the sector-disaggregated IO-LCA model could improve the reliability by eliminating the errors from rough sector classification and unreliable statistical data;（ 2） the Chinese construction sector＇s embodied energy increased 6. 755 × 108t（ standard coal,similarly hereinafter） from2005 to 2010,and the increase mainly resulted from the final demand scale effect（ relative contribution rate,188%） and partially from the Leontief effect（ relative contribution rate,42%）,while the intensity effect（ relative contribution rate,- 130%） greatly reduced the embodied energy; and（ 3） compared to a traditional SDA model,the complete SDA model improved the reliability of analysis through eliminating decomposition residuals（- 7. 399 × 108t）. We suggest to improve the construction project planning level, to strengthen the maintenance of infrastructure and buildings, to promote new-type building industrialization, sustainable construction and intelligent construction,to promote the energy saving and emission reduction in construction materials production, and to develop high performance constructionmaterials,so as to better control the Chinese construction sector＇s embodied energy.