供给侧改革下货币政策对房地产价格的效应研究

Study on the Effect of Monetary Policy on the Real Estate Price based on the Supply Side Reform

在供给制改革下,宽松的货币政策可能会对资产价格产生影响,特别是对房地产价格。房地产价格的剧烈波动不利于国民经济的健康发展。货币政策会对房地产价格产生多大影响?通过IS-Philips模型,实证检验了货币政策对房地产价格波动的影响。研究结果发现,货币政策显著地影响了房地产价格,不同的货币政策指标的影响不同,货币总量的影响小于利率的影响,利率对房地产价格的影响比较迅速,货币供给量的反应存在一定时滞。稳健性检验表明,2009年之后货币政策的影响显著大于之前。在供给制改革下,需要改变货币政策的工具以稳定房地产价格波动。

On the supply system reform,monetary policy may have an impact on asset prices,especially the price of real estate. Volatility of real estate prices is not conducive to the healthy development of the national economy. Monetary policy will have much impact on the real estate prices？Through IS- Philips model,the empirical test of the impact of monetary policy on real estate price fluctuations. The results showed that monetary policy significantly affects the real estate prices,different indicators of monetary policy have different effects,the influence of amount money less than the interest rate effect,the impact of interest rate on real estate prices relatively quickly,the money supply responses exist certain delay. Robust test shows that the impact of monetary policy after 2009 was significantly greater than before. On the supply system reform,it needs to change the tools of monetary policy to stabilize the real estate price fluctuation.