我国烤烟生产成本影响因素的实证分析——基于2004～2013年的省份面板数据

An Empirical Study on the Determinants of China's Flue-cured Tobacco Production Cost——Based on Provincial-level Panel Data between 2004 and 2013

在我国，官方根据烤烟种植成本统一制定烤烟收购价格。最近几年，烤烟种植的人工、土地、物质与服务费用的价格大幅上涨。投入要素价格的上涨如何影响成本，从而影响烤烟收购价格的制定。本文通过实证分析回答这一问题。基于2004～2013年的省份面板数据的实证结果表明，尽管烟农能通过调整要素投入组合消除地租、物质与服务价格上涨对其生产成本的影响，但不能控制工资上涨的影响。平均而言，工资每增加1％使得烤烟平均生产成本增加0．58％。燃料动力价格和化肥价格都不影响烤烟平均生产成本。本文结论意味着，相关决策部门应根据工资变化，及时调整烤烟收购价格。

In china, the central government makes the procurement price of flue-cured tobacco nationally according to its production cost. Recently, wage, land rent, and the price of material and service have been increasing significantly in flue-cured tobacco production. How does the increase in prices affect production cost, and in turn impact the police-making of the procurement price of flue-cured tobacco？ This paper answers this question through an empirical study. Based on provincial-level panel data between 2004 and 2013 ,the empirical results show that tobacco producers can get rid of the impact of land rent and the rising price of material and service, but they can＇t bear the impact of rising wage on their average production cost through adjusting their input bundle. On average, a 1% increase in wage leads to a 0.58% increase in the average production cost of flue-cured tobacco. Moreover, fuel price and chemical fertilizer price don＇t affect the average production cost. These findings imply that the policy-makers should adjust the price of flue-cured tobacco according to the change in wage.