中国省际贸易隐含碳流向与地区经济发展模式研究

The Research of Provincial Trade-embodied Carbon Emission in China

中国区域经济发展模式存在差异性,而目前节能减排目标的设定缺乏对区域间差异的考虑,无法实现节能减排的效率性和公平性。因此有必要分析不同经济发展模式的地区贸易隐含碳调入、调出量及其影响因素,为制定体现地区间公平性且有效率的碳减排政策提供依据。本文通过多区域投入-产出模型估算我国各省(市)贸易隐含碳流量,并通过结构分解分析法(SDA)将其影响因素分解为规模效应、技术效应和结构效应。结果表明,重工业密集型地区和加工贸易密集型地区碳排放调入、调出均高于其他地区,并且基本均为隐含碳净调出地。在过去一段时间,我国贸易隐含碳净调出地趋向于少数几个重工业密集型省市和加工贸易密集型省市。在重工业密集型地区和加工贸易密集型地区,规模效应均对贸易隐含碳排放产生显著的正向影响,而在加工贸易密集型地区则存在较大的技术效应,其对贸易隐含碳排放有较大的负面作用。在短期内,可以通过技术改进降低这些地区的贸易隐含碳调出,但在长期内需要通过产业结构优化升级实现低碳贸易发展。

Provinces in China have different economic development modes. However, the decision of carbon emissionreduction target does not take the regional difference into consideration, thus leading to inefficiency and inequality. It isnecessary to analyze the trade-embodied carbon emission inflow and outflow, as well as the factors that influence it. Sothat it could provide suggestions to make equal and efficient emission reduction policies for different regions. This pa-per estimates the carbon emission embodied in the trade flow among provinces in China through an Input-output Model,The impact of scale effect,technological effect and structural effect is estimated through the Structural DecompositionAnalysis model. Results show that the Heavy-Industry-Intensive Provinces and Processing-Trade-Industry- IntensiveProvinces in China are net out-flowers of trade-embodied carbon emission,with higher level of trade-embodied carbonemission outflow and inflow than other provinces. In recent years,several HIIPs and PTIIPs in China tend to be themain net out-flowers of trade-embodied carbon emission. The scale effect have significant and positive impact ontrade-embodied carbon emission for both HIIPs and PTIIPs,while the impact of technology effect on PTIIPs is largerthan that on HIIPs. In the short run,technology improvement is vital for trade-embodied emission reduction. However,low-carbon trade development in these regions should be achieved through industry structure adjustment and upgrad-ing.