中国碳密集型产业的出口战略研究——基于欧盟碳泄漏的视角

Research on the Export Strategies of Carbon Intensive Industries in China——Based on the Perspective of the Carbon Leakage from the EU

运用世界投入产出表数据对碳密集型产业进行了识别,测度结果表明:2005年以来中国各产业碳排放强度已下降40%,完成中国自主贡献目标一半以上。碳排放量较高的6类产业累计碳泄漏量占欧盟对中国碳泄漏总量的70%以上。其中,大部分碳密集型产业目前虽然出口量大,但已经不具有对欧盟出口的比较优势。而其他非金属矿物等产业虽具有出口竞争力,但却属于新兴技术产业亟需的稀缺资源,应对其出口规模加以限制。产业调整的同时,也需积极应对碳泄漏背景下的相关贸易壁垒,为碳密集型产业出口战略转型获取发展空间。

This paper uses world input-output table data to identify the carbon intensive industries. Calculation result shows that Chinese industrial carbon intensity has fallen by 40% from 2005, completed more than half of Chinese independent contribution goal. Through the calculation of carbon leakage of carbon intensive industries and export competitiveness, it finds that, in the ten highest carbon intensive industries, six of them accumulate over 70% of the total carbon leakage on China from EU. Although the demand of most industries is still high, they already do not have relative comparative advan- tage on the European Union＇s trade market. While other non-metallic minerals industry still shows export competitiveness, but it belongs to the scarce resources for emerging technology industries. Therefore, it＇s better set restrictions on the size of its export. Besides, the industries need to actively respond to the negotiations of related trade barriers to gain technical sup- port and development space for strategic transformation.