我国房地产业对实体经济的掠夺效应--基于多部门动态随机一般均衡模型的模拟分析

The Plundering Effect of China's Real Estate Industry on the Real Economy——Based on the Dynamic and Random Simulation Analysis of Multiple Sectors in the General Equilibrium Model

以亚科维耶洛模型为基础,构建一个封闭条件下的包含厂商、零售商、存款家庭、贷款家庭和中央银行等五部门的新凯恩斯主义动态一般均衡模型,以分析房地产业对实体经济的影响,分析结果显示:由于大量货币通过信贷渠道流向房地产行业,引起房价上涨,在需求方面,高涨的房价挤占了居民的消费,进而抑制总需求;在供给方面,高涨的房价由于给房地产业带给远离于其他产业的超额利润,诱使大量资本退出实体经济而进入房地产业,导致实体经济投资下降,从而抑制总供给。宽裕的房地产信贷政策加剧了这一过程。因此,当前我国要合理地运用房地产信贷政策,严格信贷条件,防止房地产业对实体经济的过度掠夺。

We have constructed the dynamic general equilibrium model of new Keynesianism including five sectors,namely,manufacturers,dealers,households with deposits,households with loans and the central bank,in a closed condition based on the Lacoviello model to analyze the impact of the real estate industry on real economy.As shown by the analysis result,housing price rises because a large amount of money flows into the real estate industry through the credit channels.In terms of the demand,rising housing price squeezes out the consumption of residents to inhibit the total demand;in terms of the supply,rising housing price brings excessive profit for the real estate industry far higher than that of other industries,so that a large amount of capital exits from the real economy to enter the real estate industry,leading to the decline of investment in the real economy and inliibiting the total supply.The easy policy of real estate credit intensifies the process.Therefore,China should now make rational use of the policy of real estate credit and make stringent credit conditions to avoid over-exploitation of the real economy by the real estate industry.