基于统计的民用飞机签派可靠度计算方法研究

Study on Calculation Method of Dispatch Reliability of Civil Aircraft Based on Statistics

签派可靠度是表征民用客机整机可靠性的关键参数,也是影响飞机原始设计的重要技术参数。本文采集了航空公司实际统计的机型延误率数据,根据延误率和签派可靠度的映射关系,从民用飞机设计角度入手,首先提出飞机初期设计阶段的7个设计参数,对延误率与设计参数进行相关分析,得出相关度最大的前3个设计参数,建立了签派可靠度与3个飞机原始设计参数之间的多元回归模型,对民用飞机的签派可靠度进行预测,并用A320现役飞机和C919国产大飞机进行实证,预测模型合理,预测精度较高,可以为我国民用飞机整机签派可靠度的预测奠定理论基础和数据支撑,同时签派可靠度的预测模型可以为民用飞机的结构设计提供数据参考。

Abstract： Dispatch reliability is the key parameters reflecting the overall reliability ot a civil alrcratt, ano the important technical parameters affecting the original design of a civil aircraft. According to the actual delay rate data of airlines, combined with the mathematical relationship between delay rate and dispatch reliability, from the perspective of civil aircraft design, seven design parameters at the aircraft early design phase are put forward in this paper, the correlation analysis between the delay rate and design parameters is made, the first three design parameters which have the maximum correlation are obtained. Also this paper, a multiple regression model between dispatch reliability and aircraft original design parameters is established. Based on this model, the dispatch reliability of civil aircraft can be predicted. An empirical study with A320 and C919 shows that the prediction model is reasonable and has higher precision accuracy, which may lay the theoretical basis and data support for dispatch reliability prediction of the civil aircraft in China, meanwhile the prediction model of dispatch reliability can provide reference data for the structure design of civil aircraft.