小城市公共交通车辆及场站规模预测——以吉林省东丰县为例

The Prediction of Small City Public Transportation Vehicles and Station Scale: Taking Dongfeng County in Jilin Province as an Example

为了对小城市公共车辆进行管理及运营调度,解决小城市公共车辆及场站规模预测问题,以吉林省东丰县为例,利用实际调查得到的数据,进行车辆预测及场站规模规划研究。通过预测小城市人口增长情况以及预测公交车和出租车的车辆数,以公共车辆数为基础,结合小城市公共场站建设的具体要求,按每标台公共车辆的场站用地需求,建立小城市公共交通综合场站用地需求模型。预测出东丰县需要的公共交通车辆数,确定东丰县需要规划的6个场站的用地规模。通过预测小城市人口数和公共交通车辆数,建立场站规划模型,解决场站规划问题。

In order to manage and operate the small city public vehicles,this paper proposed to study the vehicle forecast and the station scale using the actual survey data,w ith Dongfeng County as an example. Based on the specific requirements of small city public station,the land demand model of city public traffic integrated station w as established by forecasting the number of public vehicles according to the population grow th of small cities. Therefore,the land scale of 6 stations in Dongfeng county w as determined by forecasting the number of public vehicles. The station planning model w as built up and the station planning problem w as solved by forecasting the number of small city population and public vehicles.