3E系统协调发展的PLSPM-GIA测度模型及其应用研究

Study on the Application of the PLSPM-GIA Model to Measure the Coordination Development of the 3E System

在总结协调发展水平测算时应该注意的一些问题的基础上,提出建立PLSPM-GIA模型对3E系统协调发展水平进行估算。首先设计3E系统综合发展指标体系,运用PLS路径模型对中国1996-2014年的各系统的综合发展水平进行了计算,然后利用灰色关联模型度量了系统协调度,最后综合考虑系统的发展水平和协调水平,得出系统的协调发展水平。研究表明:①PLSPM-GIA模型能够弥补现有方法的缺陷,而且适用于系统协调发展水平的测度;②从发展水平来看,由高到低依次为经济子系统、能源子系统和环境子系统;③从系统的协调度来看,2005年之前能源经济子系统和能源环境子系统的协调度先上升后缓慢下降,由于受到经济环境子系统协调度缓慢下降的影响,3E系统协调度呈缓慢下降态势,2005年以后3E系统及其子系统的协调度下降趋势明显;④从协调发展水平来看,目前除经济环境子系统外,3E系统和其他子系统均处于轻度失调状态。

Based on summarizing some noted problems of the evaluation methods which are used to measure the system coordinated development level, this paper proposes the PLS-GIA model to measure the coordinated development level of 3E system. Starting with designing the integrated development index system of 3E system, this paper applies the PLS path model to calculate the comprehensive development level from 2000 to 2012 in China. Then the degree of the system coordination is measured by the grey incidence model. Finally the coordinated development level of 3E system is obtained from the perspective of considering the level of development and the level of coordination. The research shows that： 1） The PLSPM-GIA model can remedy for the shortcomings of relevant measurement methods, but also to be fit for surveying the coordinated development level of the system. 2） The level of development in order is economic subsystem energy and environment subsystem. 3） The coordination degree on energy-economy and energy-environment subsystem decreases slowly after rises at first. The coordination degree of 3E system slows down due to the economic-environment subsystem before 2005. After 2005 the coordination degree in 3E and subsystems declines significantly. 4） The coordinated development in 3E and the other subsystems is in disorder except economic-environment subsystem.