基于改进灰色理论的主动配电网中长期负荷预测

Mid-Long Term Load Forecasting of Active Distribution Network Based on Improved Grey Theory

中长期负荷预测是影响主动配电网规划和调度的重要方面。从柔性负荷、分布式电源及电动汽车等主动配电网中特殊负荷入手,分析提炼负荷长期发展的影响因素;将灰色理论引入主动配电网负荷预测,分析了多变量残差修正灰色模型在计及多因素影响作用和消除累积误差方面的作用。通过具体实例计算,证实了改进灰色方法在主动配电网中长期负荷预测中的有效性和实用性。

Mid-long term load forecasting is an important factor affecting the planning and scheduling of the active dis- tributed network. Beginning with study of the special loads in the active distribution network such as flexible loads, distil- buted generation and electric vehicles, this paper firstly anal- yzes and then extracts influence factors of the long-term deve- lopment of the network load. Secondly, the gray theory is introduced to load forecasting of the active distributed network, and the role of the multivariate residual correction gray model in taking multiple factors influence into account and eliminating the cumulative errors, is analyzed. Finally, effectiveness and practicality of the improved gray theory in the active distributed network load forecasting are verified by example calculations.