含分布式能源的配电网极端可接入容量估算研究

Research on the Estimation of Extreme Access Capacity of Distribution Network with Distributed Energy Resources

含分布式能源的大规模接入,通常依靠灵活的网络结构和较大的容量裕度来应对配电网的不确定性,以保证电力系统的安全可靠性。采用传统方法对配电网可接入容量估算时,难以处理各类不确定因素,存在估算误差大的问题。提出一种基于模糊层次分析的含分布式能源的含分布式能源的配电网极端可接入容量估算方法。该方法先结合增量法对含分布式能源的配电网极端可接入容量估算进行评价,对影响可接入容量估算的各种不确定性因素进行分析,组建含分布式能源的配电网分析模型和配电网最大准入容量模型,并依据其物理意义组建概率分布函数,求解不确定性因素的期望值和方差,在此基础上组建配电网极端可接入容量估算的指标体系,结合层次分析与灰色理论构造含分布式能源的配电网极端可接入容量估算模型。实验结果表明,所提方法能够有效提升含分布式能源的配电网极端可接入容量估算精度,且估算效率较优。

Large scale access with distributed energy sour- ces usually relies on flexible network structure and large capacity margin to deal with the uncertainty of distribution network to ensure the safety and reliability of the power system. It is difficult to deal with all kinds of uncertain factors when using the traditional method to estimate the access capacity of distribution network. Based on fuzzy analytic hierarchy process, an approach to estimate the extreme access capacity of distribution network with distributed energy sources is proposed. This method, combined with the incremental method for power distribution network with distributed energy, can be used to evaluate the extreme access capacity estimation, to analyze the influence of various access capacity estimation of uncertainty factors, to establish the analysis model and the maximum acc- ess capacity of the distribution network with distributed energy, and to form the probability distribution function on the basis of its physical meaning and to solve and acquire the expected value and variance of the uncertainty factors. On this basis, the index system of the distribution network extreme access capacity estimation is established, and the extreme access capacity estimation model of the distribution network with distributed energy is established by combination of the AHP and grey theory. The experimental results show that the pro- posed method can effectively improve the accuracy of the estimation of the extreme access capacity of distribution network with distributed energy sources, and the efficiency of the proposed method is better than that of the traditional method.