低碳约束对能源强度的倒逼机制研究

A Study of the Forced Mechanism of the Low Carbon Constraint on Energy Intensity

本文从低碳约束与能源强度这一基本关系出发,理论上阐释了碳生产率对能源强度产生的直接与间接影响。在此基础上,利用2000-2014年中国省级面板数据进行了实证分析。研究结果表明:碳生产率约束对能源强度的直接影响轨迹呈"U"型曲线,就中国目前实际情况而言,碳生产率将有效遏制能源强度的攀升。但随着节能成本的递增,碳生产率约束所带来的"节能"边际效应正逐步削弱。此外,碳生产率的约束将有效促使产业结构高级化,扭转产业结构调整对于能源强度的作用效果;其次,碳生产率引致的技术创新对能源强度存在反弹效应;最后,外商直接投资作为降低能源强度的有效措施之一,低碳约束对FDI的技术外溢及资本积累具有加速效应。

From the perspective of basic relationship between low carbon constraint and energy intensity,this paper theoretically argues direct and indirect impacts of carbon productivity on energy intensity. On this basis,this paper empirically analyzes China's provincial panel data from the period 2000-2014. The results demonstrate that the trajectory of the direct effects of carbon productivity on energy intensity is U-shape. For China's current situation,carbon productivity can effectively keep energy intensity down,but the marginal effects of 'energy saving'that carbon productivity brings about are weakening because of the rise of the cost of energy saving. Moreover,carbon productivity regulation inversely force the industry structure to upgrade itself,changing the effects that industry restructure have on energy intensity; Secondly,the technology innovation induced by carbon constraint may somewhat have rebound effects on energy intensity; At last,foreign direct investment,as one of the effective measures to reduce energy intensity,whose technology spillover and capital accumulation will be influenced by the acceleration effects of carbon productivity