环境规制与经济增长可以双赢吗——基于我国“两控区”的实证研究

The Win-win Relationship between Environmental Regulation and Economic Growth:Evidence from TCZ Policies in China

本文以1998年实施的"两控区"政策作为一次自然试验,采用1992年至2009年期间280个重点城市的社会经济发展数据为样本,并借助倍差分析法对"两控区"政策与经济发展的关系进行实证研究。结果表明,在实施"两控区"政策后,相比非"两控区"城市而言,"两控区"城市的人均GDP增加了8.3%,人均工业GDP增加了16.8%。这意味着,施行合适而严厉的环境规制能够促进社会经济的发展,实现环境保护与经济增长的双赢局面。另外,我们还对"两控区"城市的地理、空间、政治等不同属性进行了一系列稳健性检验。

We take the 'Acid Rain Control Zone and SO2 Pollution Control Zone'( TCZ) policy that was implemented in 1998 as a natural experiment. Based on a large society and economy development dataset of280 key cities in China from 1992-2009,this paper investigates the relationship between the policy of the TCZ and economic growth by employing the empirical method of difference-in-difference( DID). The results demonstrate that the policy of TCZ caused the GDP per capita to increase by 8. 30% and the industrial GDP per capita to increase by 16. 30%. This implies that implement of the appropriate and draconian environmental regulation can significantly promote economic development,and achieve a win-win situation for both the environmental protection and economic growth. Finally,the results are robust to a series of specification tests which include the test of difference of the geography,spatial distribution and the political factors in the TCZ cities.