中国扩大对印度尼西亚农产品出口影响因素研究——基于二元边际分解的VAR模型分析

Research on Influence Factors that China Expanding Exports of Agricultural Products to Indonesia——An Analysis of VAR Model based on Dual Trade Marginal Decomposition

基于贸易产品二元边际的分解和VAR模型的理论框架,本文对中国农产品1995-2014年出口印度尼西亚市场的贸易额结构性因素进行实证分析,发现在中国农产品出口印度尼西亚市场的增长变化中起主要推动作用的是扩展边际,固定贸易成本对扩展边际有显著作用;印尼经济规模对二元边际的作用方向不相同,而多变阻力对增加二元边际的作用较小。因此,为了扩大农产品对印尼的出口额,中国需提高农产品质量、完善农产品出口结构、发挥农产品比较优势等,以增强中国农产品在印尼市场的竞争力。

Based on the theoretical framework for the dual marginal decomposition of trade product and VAR model, the paper empirically analyzes the structural factors of China＇s export volume to Indonesian agricultural markets from 1995 to 2014, finding that expansive margin plays a major role in the growth of the Indonesian market changes in China＇s agricultural experts, and fixed trade costs make a difference for expansive margin; the economical scale of Indonesia has different effects on dual trade margin, while multilateral resistance has a smaller role in trade margin. Therefore, China should improve the quality, export structure and play comparative advantages to enhance the competitiveness of Chinese agricultural products in the Indonesian market.