西北地区城市化进程对产业结构演变的驱动效应研究

Driving effect of the industrial structure development in the process of urbanization in northwest China

基于2005-2012年西北地区51个市(州/地)的面板数据,利用相关指标测度了西北地区城市化进程对产业结构演变的驱动效应,在对其时空演化基本趋势把握的基础之上,利用空间自相关检验及空间计量方法对其空间相关性和时空驱动路径进行了分析。研究结果显示:1西北地区城市化进程对产业结构演变的驱动效应整体程度较低,但大部分市(州/地)存在逐步增强趋势,城市化进程对产业结构演变的驱动效应日益凸显;2西北地区城市化进程对产业结构演变的驱动效应存在块状联接分布,且城市密集区的驱动效应增长较城市稀疏区更为明显,空间自相关检验显示西北地区城市化进程对产业结构演变的驱动效应空间相似值集聚,且低值集聚强于高值集聚,同时驱动效应的空间正向相关性呈下降趋势;3西北地区城市化进程中的经济发展水平、区域开发强度、区域开放程度以及产业集聚等因素对产业结构的演变具有一定的驱动效应,但西北地区经济发展水平低、财政支付能力弱、外向型程度不高和产业集聚水平低的现实,在很大程度上制约了驱动效应的强度;4本地城市化进程中的多重因素在不断驱动自身产业结构演变的同时,还存在驱动效应的空间交互影响,经济发展水平的空间溢出对产业结构演变有着最为强烈的正向驱动,但区域开发强度、区域开放程度以及产业集聚存在的空间竞争效应又在很大程度上弱化了这一驱动效应。未来在通过加速城市化综合进程进一步推动西北地区产业结构高级化的基础上,还需加强西北地区城际间的协调联动发展。

Based on the panel data of 51 cities （ states and regions） in the northwest China from 2005 to 2012, the driving effect of the industrial structure development in the process of urbanization was measured by using the correlation index. Based on the time-space evolution trend, the author analyzed its spatial correlation and time-space driving paths by using the method of spatial autocorrelation test and spatial econometrics. The results were as follows ： （1） the driving effect of the industrial structure development in the process of urbanization in northwest China was relatively low, but its tendency was to be gradually enhanced in most of the cities （ states and regions）. The driving effect of the industrial structure development in the process of urbanization in northwest China was rising. （2） There is block-shaped distribution about the driving effect of the industrial structure development in the process of urbanization in northwest China, and the growth of the driving effect in the densely populated cities was more obvious than sparsely populated cities. Spatial autocorrelation test showed that the driving effect of the industrial structure development in the process of urbanization in northwest China had some similarities; that is to say, the high value agglomeration was more than the low value agglomeration, and the spatial positive correlation of the driving effect was in decline. （3） The economic development, the strength of regional development, the strength of regional openness and industrial agglomeration in the process of urbanization had certain driving effect to industrial structure development in northwest China, but the low-level economy, weak financial ability, and the low-level of export-oriented degree and industrial agglomeration restricted the driving effect in northwest China. （~） In addition, its own multiple factors had deepened the driving effect of the industrial structure development in the process of urbanization in northwest China, and the spatial spillover of economic development had positively pushed the driving effect, but the space competition effect caused by the strength of regional development, the strength of regional openness and industrial agglomeration had weakened it to the great extent. In the future, based on the upgrading to the industrial structure by accelerating urbanization process, the coordination and linkage development in northwest China need to be strengthened between cities.