基于蒙特卡罗的消费投资决策模型研究

Research of consumption and investment decision model based on Monte Carlo

将消费和投资放在一个跨期最优化框架下,提出了基于蒙特卡罗风险评估的消费投资决策模型。首先,建立个体效用函数、劳动收入、跨期预算约束、投资机会及市场摩擦因素之间的数学表达式。然后,考虑劳动收入风险、投资收益风险,建立消费投资组合动态优化模型。最后,通过一个实例阐明所提出模型能更加有效地刻画实际市场中的消费投资情况,证明所设计算法的有效性。

With the consumption and investment in a cross-time optimization framework, a consumption investmentdecision model based on Monte Carlo risk assessment is proposed. First, the mathematical expressions of individualutility function, labor income, cross period budget constraints, investment opportunities and market friction factorsare established. Then, taking into account the risk of labor income and investment income, the dynamic optimizationmodel of consumption investment portfolio is set up. Finally, a practical example is discussed to illustrateeffectiveness and practicability of the proposed model.