基于AHP-DEMATEL的PPP项目关键成功因素相互关系研究

Study on the Determinants and their Relationships of PPP Projects

在文献回顾和问卷调查基础上,识别影响PPP项目成功实施的3大影响因素和18个可测量指标。采用AHP和DEMATEL相结合的方法对PPP项目成功实施影响因素间的相互关系进行分析。其中,AHP方法用于获取各因素权重值,DEMATEL方法用于计算各因素之间相互影响程度,两者进行加权计算各因素在系统中的综合影响度并进行排序。研究结果表明,国家法律法规体系的健全、产品/服务质量、市场需求稳定性是PPP项目关键成功因素。一个PPP项目能否顺利实施,最重要的影响因素是项目所在地的经济基础及其所决定的上层建筑。

Though literature review and questionnaire survey, the author summarized 18 variables that contributed a lot to the successful implementation of PPP project. AHP - DEMATEL method was used to make quantitative analysis of system interrelationships and interactions between each influencing factor. As for PPP projects, national policies and regulations, especially changes in laws, as well as administration system and market demand were the key factors. At the end, the au- thors came to a conclusion that the most important factors of the successful implementation of PPP projects are the society＇s economic foundation and the superstructure based on it. The economic basis is PPP projects＇ economic guarantee for suc- cessful implementation and the superstructure based on it, which determines the government＇s regulatory capacity and com- pliance awareness.