石家庄市小觉测区多年径流量趋势分析

Analysis of runoff trend of Shijiazhuang Xiaojiao area

以小觉测区多年径流量资料为基础,应用线性倾向率法、Mann-Kendall检验法及统计分析参数等方法,分析该测区内年际径流量变化规律。小觉测区径流量多年总体趋势为减少,趋势明显。在近10年内趋势比较稳定,且在1981年有突变点。该测区径流量年变差系数和极值比均较大,说明该测区径流量变化大,不利于水资源利用,容易产生旱涝灾害。

Based on the years of runoff data of Xiaojiao test area, the annual runoff variation law of the measured area is analyzed by the using of linear tendency rate method, Mann-Kendall test method and statistical analysis parameters. The general trend of Xiaojiao test area showed a decreasing tendency, and the trend is obvious. The trend is relatively stable over the past ten years, and there is a change point in 1981. Both the annual runoff variation coefficient and the extreme ratio of this area were larger, it showed that the runoff of this area has a great variation, and the variation is not good for the utilization of water resources and prone to droughts and floods.