Logit模型的改进及其在客流预测中的应用--以铁岭市现代有轨电车为例

Improvement of Logit Model and Its Use in Passenger Flow Forecast —— Taking Tieling's Modern Tram as an Example

为进一步提高Logit模型的准确性、适时性和适用性,本文增加效用函数的衡量指标,充分考虑新指标对总效用的影响,重新定义效用函数,并完善此模型在计算中的一个明显缺陷,得到改进后的Logit模型。运用改进后的Logit模型,根据"四阶段法"构建中小城市现代有轨电车的交通需求预测模型,并将此模型应用于铁岭市规划现代有轨电车的客流预测,得到预测年铁岭市中心城区现代有轨电车的主客流方向。所得结论为铁岭市及其他我国中小城市规划建设现代有轨电车系统提供了参考和借鉴。

In order to further improve the accuracy, timeliness applicability of the logit model, some measure indexes of the utility function were added, and the impact from the new and log and index on the total utility was fully considered, the utility function was redefined, an obvious defect of this model in calculation was perfected, meanwhile, an improved it model was get. According to the ＂four-stage method＂, a forecast model for the small medium-sized cities＇ traffic demands based on the improved model was constructed. After that, the model was used to forecast the traffic demand of the tram planning of Tieling city, and the main passenger flow direction of the tram planning in Tieling＇s central urban area in the forecast year was obtained. The conclusion could provide areference toTieling city and other similar small and medium-sized cities in our country when planning a tram system.