区域产业结构变迁对经济增长的影响——基于1978—2013年15个省份的实证研究

THE EFFECTS OF REGIONAL INDUSTRIAL STRUCTURE CHANGE ON ECONOMIC GROWTH——An Empirical Study Based on Fifteen Provinces

本文从中国的东中西部地区各随机选取5个省份作为研究样本,利用三大地区1978—2013年的面板数据,在测度产业结构合理化和高级化的基础上,对比研究不同地区的产业结构变迁对于经济增长的影响。实证结果表明:(1)东部地区产业结构合理化和高级化水平均最优;(2)产业结构合理化对经济增长的影响较为稳定,而产业结构高级化对经济增长影响的稳定性却随经济发展阶段的不同而变化。横向比较而言,东部地区的产业结构合理化对其经济增长的影响大于产业结构高级化,而中部和西部地区的产业结构高级化对其经济增长的总效应大于产业结构合理化。

This paper selected five provinces randomly from the eastern area, middle area and western area respectively. It discussed the structural changes in different areas from the perspective of rationaliza- tion and optimization from 1978 to 2013, and built econometric model to compare the effects of industrial structure on economic growth between different areas. Furthermore, it applied a robustness test to verify the conclusion. The results showed that the rationalization and optimization of industrial structure in east- ern area were superior to the middle and western area. There was a steady relationship between the ration- alization of industrial structure and economic growth, nevertheless, the relationship between the optimiza- tion of industrial structure and economic growth was uncertain. In the light of present situation, as for the eastern area, the rationalization of industrial structure had more effects than the optimization of industrial structure on the economic growth. In the middle area and western area, the total effect of the optimization of industrial structure on the economic growth was greater than the rationalization of industrial structure.