国家经济安全视角下的石油:2016年监测和2017年预警

Oil in Perspective of National Economic Security: 2016 Monitoring and 2017 Warning

石油被誉为"工业的血液",对国家经济安全有着重要的影响。从经济安全的内涵来看,石油对外依存度和战略石油储备满足消费的天数两个指标可以分别从外部风险和内部抵御风险的能力两个方面衡量石油对国家经济安全的影响。测算结果显示,作为经济安全条件的石油对外依存度状况呈恶化趋势,安全得分从2016年的31.6分降至2017年的28.4分,作为经济安全能力的战略石油储备满足消费的天数状况逐年改善,安全得分从2016年的89.6分升至2017年的91.8分,但是总体上石油对经济安全的影响在逐年恶化,安全得分从2016年的53.2分降至2017年的51.1分。因此,我们既要"固强"又要"补弱",多管齐下,努力使石油对经济安全的影响逐渐转好。

Petroleum plays an important influence on national economic security. From the connotation of economic security,oil dependence degree and days of strategic petroleum reserves meeting the consumption can measure the oil impact on national economic security from two aspects of external risks and internal resisting risks. The results show that the oil dependence degree of the situation is worsening,the security score from 31. 6 in 2016 to 28. 4 in 2017,days of strategic petroleum reserves meeting the consumption has improved every year,scoring points from 89. 6 in 2017 to 91. 8 in 2016. However,overall,the impact of oil on economic security has deteriorated in the years,with a score of 53. 2 points in 2016 to 51. 1 in 2017. Therefore,it is obliged to take a variety of measures to make the oil impact on economic security gradually improved.