气象业务系统升级变更方案选择研究

Research on Selecting the Scheme for Upgrading and Changing the Meteorological Business System

合理选择实施方案是气象业务系统顺利完成升级变更的前提与关键,但是由于选择决策需考虑因素种类多、备选方案优势各异、各因素的评价方式具有差异等因素的存在,致使方案选择困难。为解决上述问题,本文在考虑变更成本、变更对业务的影响、变更风险和变更预期效果等因素基础上,采用费用、参与人员数、变更执行时间、业务影响程度、业务影响时间、技术风险、实施风险、功能完善程度和性能提高程度等属性作为选择的评价指标对问题进行建模,并根据问题特点设计一种选择方法。该方法首先根据备选方案的属性取值约简属性;然后,通过专家评估获得属性权重,并对属性进行模糊化表示和归一化处理;最后,利用TOPSIS方法对业务系统升级变更方案进行选择。通过真实案例实给出了解决方法的具体步骤及选择结果。

Selecting an appropriate scheme is crucial for upgrading and changing the meteorological business system.However,it is difficult to select the scheme,due to many factors affects the decision-making and each scheme have different advantage on different factors,which evaluated by different methods.In this paper,a model was built to this selection problem by considering the cost of change,the business influence of change,the risk of change,and expected effect of change.To evaluate the scheme,the cost,the number of participants,the execution time of change,the business influence degree of change,the business influence time of change,the technical risk,the implement risk,the degree of functional improvements,and the degree of performance optimization are chosen as the decision-making attributes.To solve this problem,a method is proposed base on analyzing the trait of this problem.It first reduce the attributes according to the value of different schemes.Then,obtain the weight of attributes according the estimation of expert,express some attributes with fuzzy value,and normalize all the value of attributes.At last,employ TOPSIS to select the scheme.The experiment result show that this algorithm can estimate the computing resource scale effectively.