宏观审慎对房价波动的调控效应及货币政策协调

The Effect of Macro-prudential Regulation on Housing Prices and Monetary Policy Coordination

分析了宏观审慎政策对房价波动的调控效果、作用机制以及最优政策组合等问题。结果表明,宏观审慎政策通过约束居民信贷行为,弱化了抵押品渠道所产生的金融加速器效应,从而有效降低了房价波动,增进了居民社会福利收益。研究还表明,货币政策关注房价波动有助于强化宏观审慎调控效果,而住房限购政策虽能抑制房价上涨,但会对实体经济发展产生不利影响。因此,为实现经济金融的稳定发展,中央银行在加强预期管理的同时,应采用协调性的泰勒规则来配合宏观审慎调控,充分发挥货币政策工具的协同效应。

This paper analyzed the effect,the transmission mechanism and the optimal policy combination of macro-prudential regulation on housing prices. The results showed that the macro-prudential regulation can reduce the housing prices fluctuation effectively,and enhance the households' social welfare by constraining the credit quantity and weakening the financial accelerator effect. At the same time,the monetary policy which responded to housing prices can strengthen the effect of macro-prudential regulation. Although the housing restriction policy can curb housing prices,it will give rise to a negative impact on the real economy. Therefore,in order to achieve the objectives of financial stability and price stability,the monetary authority should coordinate the forward looking Taylor rules which concerned about housing prices fluctuation with macro-prudential policy,and make full use of the synergistic effect of monetary policy tools.