商业银行对矿业企业绿色信贷项目风险度量的研究

Research on risk measurement of green credit projects of mining companies by commercial banks

为避免商业银行低估绿色信贷项目的投资价值,以矿业上市公司为研究对象,从商业银行视角出发,基于KMV模型和股权现金流量折现模型度量了绿色信贷项目面临的违约风险。实证研究表明:A矿业上市公司在绿色信贷项目期间具有较低的违约概率,且KMV模型具有较好地动态度量信贷违约风险的效果,商业银行在一定程度上可以信赖该模型的度量结果。

In case that commercial banks underestimate the investment value of green credit projects,the paper takes listed mining companies as the research subject and,from the perspective of commercial banks and based on KMV model and equity DCF model,measures the default risk faced by green credit projects. Empirical analysis shows that A listed mining company has a relatively low default probability in green credit projects; KMV model has a good effect in dynamically measuring credit default risks; commercial banks can to some extent trust the measurement result of the model.