杭州湾悬浮泥沙浓度时间序列模型和预测

Time Series Model and Forecast of Suspended Sediment Concentration in Hangzhou Bay

根据杭州湾悬浮泥沙浓度的时间序列数据,通过数据预处理、模型识别、定阶、参数估计及适应性检验,建立了一个ARIMA(3,1,2)模型,并对未来杭州湾悬浮泥沙的浓度作了预测.结果表明,ARIMA模型对描述和预测杭州湾悬浮泥沙浓度具有较高的精度.

For the time series data of suspended sediment concentration in the Hangzhou Bay,through appropriate data preprocessing,model identification,order determination,parameter estimation and adaptive test,the ARIMA(3,1,2)model is established,and predict the concentration of suspended sediment in Hangzhou Bay.The results show that the ARIMA model has a high precision to describe and predict the suspended sediment concentration in the Hangzhou Bay.