财政分权对产业结构优化升级影响的实证研究——基于30个省级面板数据的分析

The Impact of Fiscal Decentralization on the Optimization and Upgrading of Industrial Structure——Based on 30 Provincial Panel Data

文章利用我国30个省的面板数据,研究分析财政分权对产业结构优化升级的影响。从财政分权、人口增速、对外开放、教育水平、城镇化水平等五个维度,搜集1999-2014年数据,建立系统矩估计模型,运用Stata软件对数据进行处理和分析。结果表明:财政分权对第二产业占比的影响呈倒"U"型;财政分权与第三产业占比呈正相关;人口增速与产业结构呈反方向变动,对外开放水平,教育水平,城镇化水平均与产业结构呈正比例关系,而地方政府的财政支出自主程度促进了产业结构的优化,因此,提出加大地方政府财政自主权,提高对外开放、教育水平以及城镇化水平,有助于促进我国产业结构的优化升级。

Based on the panel data of 30 provinces in China, this paper analyzes the impact of fiscal decentralization oll the optimization and upgrading of industrial structure. From five aspects of fiscal decentralization, population growth, opening up, education level, urbanization level, it collects the data from 1999 to 2014, establishes the model of system GMM, and uses Stata software to analyze the data. The results are as follows： （1）It presents that the relationship between fiscal decentralization and the proportion of secondary industry is an inverted U shaped curve. （2）The relationship between fiscal decentralization and the proportion of tertiary industry is positive correlation. （3） The relationship between industrial structures and the growth of population changes in the opposite direction. Then foreign trade, educational level, urbanization with industrial structure have directly proportional relationship. However, the autonomous degree of financial expenditure in local government contributes to upgrading industrial structure. We must highlight to improve the financial autonomy of local government, enhance the degree of foreign trade, educational level and urbanization.