基于断点回归设计的新农保政策实施效果研究

Implementation Effect of New Rural Social Pension Program Based on Regression Discontinuity Design

新农保政策实施以来,其实施效果一直备受关注,然而这项政策是否真正达到了预期效果,还有待评估和验证。基于此,利用2013年中国健康与养老追踪调查(CHARLS)数据,运用断点回归设计的方法,分别估计了新农保对农村老年人家庭收入、家庭消费支出以及主观福利水平方面的影响,并从上述三个角度对新农保政策的实施效果进行了研究。实证结果表明,"新农保"养老金收入在一定程度上提高了农村家庭的总收入,同时提高了农村老年人的主观福利水平,对其家庭消费支出也有一定的促进作用。但由于新农保养老金目前的支付水平较低,新农保政策在现阶段能够发挥的作用仍然有限,因此,为了进一步完善这项惠农政策,有针对性地提出了相关的政策建议。

The implementation effect of the New Rural Social Pension Program （NRSP） has attracted much attention since it was enforced, and whether this program has achieved its expected effect waits to be evaluated and validated. Based on the data from 2013 China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Survey （CHARLS） and regression discontinuity method, this paper evaluates respectively the effects of NRSP on rural elderly＇ s household income, household consumption expenditure and subjective wellfare level, and studies the implementation effect of NRSP policy from the above-mentioned three dimensions. The empirical results show that NRSP pension income increases the household income of rural families to a certain extent, promotes the subjective wellfare level of rural elderly, and boosts their household consumption expenditure. Since the NRSP pension payment level is low and the NRSP policy has a limited role to play at the present stage, relevant policy recommendations are put forward so as to further improve this peasant-benefiting policy.