制度差异、异质性禀赋与服务业的就业效应——基于省域数据门限回归的研究

System Difference,Idiosyncratic Endowment and Service Industry Employment Effect——Based on Provincial Data Threshold Regression Study

服务业大多具有不可贸易的特征,服务需求对地理距离弹性较大,因此生产的"市场分割效应"明显。文章基于这个思路,依据新经济地理CRS-PC的理论框架,推理出具有较高需求的区域往往具有很强的就业拉动效应;制度的差异性以及禀赋的异质性对就业有重要影响。结合泰尔指数分析了服务业区域差异,用Moran指数分析了服务业就业空间的联系;依据2002-2014年的数据,运用门限回归的方法,分别分析了制度因素和禀赋因素对服务业就业的作用,并指出了市场化和人力资本等因素对服务业就业的短期和长期的影响。

Since service industry is mainly featured by non- trade and its service demand is flexible in geographical distance, its production has an obvious market segmentation effect＂ Based on the theoretical framework of the new economic geography CRS-PC, this paper reasons out that the regions with higher demand tend to have a strong employment- pulling effect, and that system difference and endowment heterogeneity have an important influence on employment. Meanwhile, this paper analyzes regional differences in service industry combined with Theil index, analyzes the connection between service industry employment spaces via Moran index, analyzes the effects of system factors and endowment factors on service industry employment via threshold regression method based on 2002-2014 data, and finally points out the short-term effects and long-term effects of marketization and human capital on service industry employment.