房价波动对居民消费的传导渠道研究

Research on the Transmission Channel of Housing Price Fluctuation towards Residential Consumption

基于结构向量自回归模型对房价波动影响我国居民消费的传导渠道及其作用效果进行了模拟研究。结果发现,房价波动通过信贷渠道对我国居民消费的影响最大,但这种渠道传导的是负向抑制影响,即该渠道导致房价波动对居民消费的正向影响减少17.8%,负向影响增加10.2%;而房价波动通过收入渠道、储蓄渠道对居民消费均传导了正向促进影响,且房价对居民消费的正向促进影响中收入渠道传导了10.7%、储蓄渠道仅传导了3.57%。

This article takes a simulation study on the transmission channel and the effect of Chinese residential consumption impacted from the structural vector autoregressive model versus housing price. The result indicates that the impact of the housing price fluctuation on Chinese residential consumption from credit channel is the largest, but the transmission is negative inhibition impact, namely the reduction by 17.8% in positive impact of housing price fluctuation on residential consumption and increase by 10.2% in negative impact. Whereas the housing price fluctuation conducts positive improving impact on residential consumption from income channel and saving channel, and the income channel conducts 10.7% by the positive improving impact on housing price on residential consumption, while only 3.57% is conducted by saving channel.