石油价格波动对中国进出口贸易的非对称影响效应研究

Research on the Asymmetric Impact Effect of Oil Price Fluctuation on China's Import and Export Trade

采用非线性自回归分布滞后(NARDL)模型研究了石油价格波动对中国进出口贸易的非对称影响效应,结果表明石油价格波动对出口贸易存在着长期非对称影响效应。从长期来看,石油价格每上涨1个百分点,出口贸易将增加0.4937个百分点;石油价格每下降1个百分点,出口贸易将下降0.2521个百分点。短期内石油价格每变动1个百分点将导致出口贸易相应变动0.2816个百分点,石油价格波动对进口贸易存在着长短期非对称影响效应。从长期来看,石油价格每上涨1个百分点,进口贸易将增加0.4673个百分点;石油价格每下降1个百分点,进口贸易将下降0.2338个百分点。短期内石油价格每下降1个百分点将导致进口贸易累计下降1.2228个百分点,石油价格上涨对进口贸易的影响不显著。

This article uses NARDL model to study the asymmetric effect of oil price fluctuation on China＇s import and export trade, the result indicates that oil price fluctuation has a long run asymmetric effect on export trade. From the long run perspective, when the oil price increases by 1%, the export trade will increase 0.4937%; when oil price decreases by 1%, the export trade will decrease by 0.252%. In the short run, the variation of 1% in oil price will lead to the corresponding variation of 0.2816% of export trade, and the oil price fluctuation has a long-run and short-run asymmetric impact effect on import trade. In the long run, when oil price increases by 1%, the import trade will increase by 0.4673%; when oil price decreases by1%, the import trade will decrease by 0.2338%. In the short run, the decrease of oil price by 1% will lead to the reduction by1.2228% of import trade, and the impact of the increase in oil price on import trade is not significant.