基于Landsat影像的西宁市主城区土地利用动态分析及预测

Dynamic Analysis and Prediction of Land-use Based on the Landsat Images in Xining

以西宁市主城区为研究对象,以西宁市1987、2001年和2014年3期Landsat-5和Landsat-8卫星遥感数据为主要信息源,在遥感图像处理系统和GIS支持下,选择土地利用变化幅度、动态度定量指标,分析了研究区1987-2014年的土地利用变化。通过建立马尔可夫模型,分析预测西宁市未来26a的土地利用变化。结果表明,研究区土地利用格局变化明显,其中,建设用地变化最显著,从1987年占各地类比重的10.98%到2014年的23.42%;林地和耕地的变化十分明显,特别是在2000年以后,退耕还林政策的实施使林地和耕地的变化更显著;随着城市的不断发展,各类土地比重也不断变化,根据马尔可夫预测结果表明,研究区土地利用格局在未来的30a内仍将不断变化。

Land is the most important material basis for the development of human society. This paper taking the urban area of Xining,eapital of Qinghai Province in China as the research object,the changes of land use in the city during 1987-2014 were analyzed by using the Landsat-5 and Landsat-8 satellite images in 1987,2001 and 2014,with the support of remote sensing image processing system and GIS and using two quantitative indicators of the land use change range and dynamic degree. Situations of land use changes in the next 26 years in Xining were analyzed by using Markov model. According to the results,the pattern of the land use in Xining changed rapidly and the most significant change in land use was construction land, which accounted for 10.98% of the total land use in 1987 ,and 23.42% in 2014. Secondly,changes in forest land and farmland were also very significant, especially after 2000, the using patterns of forest land and farmland were the results of implementing the grain for green policy. The proportions of different land types would change continuously with the development of the city. According to the results of the Markov forecast,the urban construction of Xining and pattern of land use would continue to change in the next 30 years.