山东省金融服务业发展的空间非均衡及分布动态演进——基于银行业的实证分析

The Spatial Disequilibrium and Dynamic Evolution of Financial Services Industry Development in Shandong Province:Based on an Empirical Analysis of Banking Industry

基于2003-2013年山东省17城市数据,采用Dagum基尼系数测算了山东省金融服务业发展的总体差异及其来源,同时运用核密度估计法考察了空间差异的分布动态演进趋势。研究结论表明:(1)山东省金融服务业总体呈非均衡发展态势,地区间、地区内各城市间的金融服务业发展水平存在显著差异。(2)山东省金融服务业发展总体差异呈先提升后趋于平缓,略有下降趋势;除鲁中地区外,其他区域内差异总体呈下降趋势;鲁北和半岛沿海、鲁北与鲁中、鲁北与鲁南区域间差异总体呈小幅下降趋势,其他区域间差异总体呈上升趋势。(3)鲁北、半岛沿海地区金融服务业发展差距先缩小后拉大;鲁中地区逐年拉大;鲁南地区先拉大后缩小,然后又拉大;鲁北地区金融服务业发展出现了显著的两极分化现象。

Based on 17 cities data in Shandong province from 2003 to 2013, this paper uses Dagum gini coefficient to estimate the o- verall difference of the financial services industry development in Shandong province and its source. Meanwhile it uses kernel density estimation method to explore the dynamic evolution trend of spatial difference distribution. The results show： （ 1 ） The financial services industry takes on development disequilibrium in Shandong province, and the inter-regional and intra-regional cities also present signif- icant differences. （2） The overall differences of financial services industry development in Shandong province firstly rise slightly, then begin to flatten, and finally fall slightly; The inter-regional differences show decreasing trend except the central areas; The intra-re- gional differences in the northern parts and the coast, the northern and central parts, the northern and southern parts show decreasing trend, and other intra-regional differences show increasing trend. （3） The financial services development disparity of the northern parts and the coast first narrows, then widens; The disparity of the central parts enlarges year by year; The disparity of the southern parts first widens, then narrows, and then widens again; The polarization appears significantly in the northern parts.