福建省粮食需求量预测研究

Prediction of Grain Demand in Fujian Province

为了实现资源的效用最大化、提供福建省粮食安全新的数据支持,分析了2003—2012年福建省粮食消费的特点,预测未来年份的粮食需求量。结果表明:第一,福建省粮食消费总量呈现递增的趋势,粮食消费结构也有较大幅度调整;第二,人均粮食消费量增加了44 kg,人均口粮消费量减少了12 kg,人均饲料粮消费量增加了55 kg,饲料用粮大幅增加,是导致福建省人均粮食消费量大幅增长的主要原因;第三,比较不同经济发展水平下和平衡膳食模式下的人均粮食需求量,发现差异明显,实际人均消费量远高于合理人均需求量,不合理的食物消费结构造成了不合理的粮食浪费现象;第四,按照高、中、低3种不同的人均粮食需求量分别预测全省的粮食需求量,基于平衡膳食模式的粮食需求量能较真实地反映福建省的实际需求量,即2020、2025年全省粮食需求量分别为1222万t、1243万t。

To realize the maximum utilization of limited resources and provide new supporting data for foodsecurity in Fujian Province, the author analyzed grain consumption characteristics from 2003 to 2012 andpredicted grain demand for the next several years. The results showed that, firstly, the total grain consumptionin Fujian Province showed an increasing trend, and the consumption structure had a large variation. Secondly,grain consumption per capita increased 44 kg, ration consumption per capita decreased 12 kg, feed grainconsumption per capita increased 55 kg. Substantial increase of feed grain was the main reason leading to thesubstantial growth of grain consumption per capita in Fujian Province. Thirdly, comparison of the grainconsumption per capita at different economic levels and under reasonable dietary patterns showed that therewere obvious differences. The actual consumption was higher than the theoretical values. Irrational grainconsumption led to grain waste. Fourthly, according to the prediction of grain demand per capita at high,middle and low levels, prediction of grain demand based on reasonable dietary patterns could reflect the actualgrain demand, and the grain demand was 12.22 million tons in 2020 and 12.43 million tons in 2025.