社会保障、人力资本的公共支出与经济增长——基于面板门限模型的实证分析

Social Security,Public Expenditure of Human Capital and Economic Growth—Empirical Analysis Based on the Threshold Model

从社会保障和人力资本支出视角对经济增长的作用效应进行实证检验。研究发现:社会保障支出对经济增长具有抑制作用,人力资本支出对经济增长具有显著的促进作用;二者对经济增长的影响存在基于收入水平的门限效应,即人力资本支出对经济增长的正效应将随着居民收入水平的提高而递增;社会保障支出对经济增长的影响具有明显区域差异,东部地区的抑制效应呈逐级递减趋势,中部地区呈先减后增的"U"型特征,西部地区则是逐级递减的正向关系。

The paper makes an empirical test on the effect of economic growth from the per- spectives of social security and human capital. Result shows that social security expenditure inhib- its the economic growth, while human capital expenditure has a significant positive effect on eco- nomic growth; the effect of social security and human capital expenditure on economic growth has threshold effect based on income levels, that is the positive effect of human capital investment on economic growth will increase with the raise of the income of residents; the effects of social securi- ty expenditure on economic growth has obvious regional differences. The inhibitory effect in the eastern region gradually decreases, and the central area represents a ＂U＂ shape characteristics by decreasing first and then increasing, and the western region shows a positive relationship of decreasing.