省级区域获取中央财政转移支付的影响因素研究

Research on the Influencing Factors of Central Transfer Payment to Provincial Areas

从理论分析得出影响中央财政转移支付规模的因素可分为非制度性因素和制度因素,采用12个指标构建的面板模型计量结果显示,各个地方的自然条件、经济水平、公共服务支出需求是影响中央转移支付大小的关键因素,但与中央转移支付同方向变化的结果表明其不代表公平的性质;1994年实行的新财政体制包含着改变中央财权弱化格局的导向和制度安排,其制度的不完善性恰恰正向影响了中央转移支付的大小;另外,地方政府是否为边疆省份、少数民族多寡和区域的安全性等政治考量也是影响中央转移支付的重要因素。

Based on the theoretical analysis, the paper argues that factors influencing the scale of central transfer payment can be divided into non - institutional and institutional factors. The results of panel model constructed by 12 indicators show that natural conditions, economic lev- el, and the needs of public service expenditure are key factors affecting the scale of central transfer payment. But the result of changes in the same direction as the central transfer payments indicates that it does not represent fair nature. The new financial system implemented in 1994 contained guidance and institutional arrangements to change the weakened situation of central financial au- thority. The imperfect of the system right influences the scale of central transfer payment positive- ly. In addition, political considerations like whether a local government is the frontier province or not, the amount of ethnic minorities and regional security are also important factors that affect the scale of central transfer payment.