超预期通胀与货币政策边界——基于微观厂商模型和经验证据

On Ultra- expected Inflation and the Boundary of Monetary Policy——Based on the Micro- producer Model and Empirical Evidence

2012年以来,中国告别近20年11%左右的高速增长,开始沿着新的平衡增长路径,进入中速增长的"新常态",依靠货币政策短期刺激经济增长的空间已经消失。为了解释这一经济现实,文章从理论和经验两方面系统考察货币政策影响产出的作用机制。首先建立数理模型。通过观察微观厂商对于超预期通货膨胀的理性反应,从微观角度提供理论证据,证明货币政策通过制造超预期通胀对真实产出产生影响,解释为何这种影响具有条件依存性和不可持续性,其边界处在潜在产出和自然失业率水平。其次,建立附加预期的菲利普斯曲线回归方程。通过分段检验中国改革开放以来超预期通货膨胀与实际产出之间的相关关系,分析中国货币政策在各个时期的政策效果,为检验货币政策边界的存在性、评价货币政策实施效果和预测货币政策未来走向提供经验证据。

Since 2012, China said farewell to the high speed economic growth rate of 11% and entered into the ＂New Normal＂ with a medium growth speed along a new balanced growth path. The space of using monetary policy to stimulate economic growth in the short run has van- ished. In order to explain the very economic fact, the article theoretically and empirically exam- ines the mechanism by which the monetary policy influences output. First, a mathematic model is constructed. Through observing individual producers＇ rational reaction to ultra - expected inflation, theoretical evidence is given to prove that monetary policy has influences on the real output by making ultra- expected inflation. Explanations are given to show why the influence heavily relies on conditions and unsustainable. The boundary of the monetary policy lies on potential output and natural rate of unemployment. Second, a regression equation of Expectations - augmented Phillips Curve is constructed. Through separately examining the correlation between ultra -expectation in- flation and real output in three periods since China＇s reform and opening up, the effects of mone- tary policy on the real output in the periods are analyzed, which provides empirical evidences to prove the existence of the monetary policy boundary, evaluate the effects of monetary policy and predict its future development.